Note of the chronicler of the 20 in January of 2017
http://www.cronista.com/finanzasmercados/Recomendaciones-para-acomodar-las-carteras-al-cambio-presidencial-en-EE.UU.-20170120-0052.html
The market participants are divided into two groups: on the one hand, they are conservatives, that you prefer to protect their money in the short term and at the other end, more aggressive investors are located, with yields to more long term.
Today is Donald Trump to the House white and with him, many doubts in the financial sector. To the investors, little they matter if the Tycoon American is misogynistic or xenophobic. Your questions go rather by how much volatility can be generated in the markets of the new President of the United States decisions.
The market participants are divided into two groups: on the one hand, they are conservatives, that you prefer to protect their money in the short term and expected to be more clear what will be the actions of Trump; at the other end, more aggressive investors are located, looking longer term yields, without attached to the situation. Today, and others are adjusting their portfolios to the Trump era and consulted specialists by The chronicler your opinion about what would be the best decisions.
For the most conservative, Sabrina Corujo, Research Manager of Portfolio staff, recommended distribute the capital of the following way: “40% in the Lebac; 30% in Llets dollar; 20% in Boñar 2021, City of Buenos Aires 2021 or the sovereign bond that is tendered yesterday to 2022; y 10% Bonar 2024”. At the time to justify your choice, the specialist analyzed: “Is a portfolio with low risk of market and virtually balanced between pesos and dollars. We take advantage of the positive real rate that keep the Lebac in pesos and the Llets than, with yields of the order of the 3%, It is located above for other alternatives of similar risk and term offered. Exposing ourselves to greater volatility, but in the search for earn high coupons without much increase the risk, We aim at participation in the short part dollar bonds and average curve”.
For Marcelo Elbaum, of Maxinver, the more conservative investor should aim at dolarizarse: “I would recommend investing a 30% sovereign bonds up to 2021, a 35% in provincial and corporate bonds with maturities of between 2021 y 2028, a 30% in bonds sovereign subsequent to 2028, and a 5% remaining would assign him to the American Government interest rate coverage. That coverage means that if the rate us from 10 years will be to 3% or even more, the price of the bond will be protected. But does not eliminate the 100% risk, dampens it”, explained.
In an exclusive report for your customers, the team's research of bridge headed by Ezequiel Zambaglione recommended to the more cautious position in alternative short dollar, It offers protection against interest rate hikes. “The Treasury bonds of United States that adjust for inflation (TIPS) and American companies with investment grade corporate bonds are presented as the best alternatives. To search for yields, the Argentine bonds in dollars with maturities of between 4 y 5 years are the most attractive, with yields on the order of 5%”, noted.
On the other side of the market, they are investors who support more volatility and dare to expect a return to long-term. For them, the bridge report encouraged to “search yields by taking advantage of the good prospects for the actions of United States, especially in the scenario of low of taxes, Since in the majority of them scenarios offer best returns expected that those bonds”. About the American equity, the paper added: “Shares of companies that generate their income mostly in the United States are particularly attractive, Since most would benefit from the tax cut and less affected a scenario where Trump delivers on its promise of protecting the industry through the rise of tariffs on imports”, said bridge.
Sabrina Corujo, for his part, whereas a more aggressive portfolio, recommended to allocate a 25% to actions (Pampa, Banco Macro, Holcim, Cresud and Transportadora de Gas del Sur), a 20% to Lebac, a 25% bonds Discount (DICA), a 10% in Boñar 2046 and/or PARY and a 20% in Boñar 2024 or the new sovereign bond to 2027 issued yesterday. “The largest bet, both in terms of profitability and risk, It will focus on actions where we remain positive under a medium-term fundamentals and flow horizon and at the longest part of the curve in dollars, with positions exceeding the 35%, for which is based on the possibility that Argentina compressed risk spreads of with respect to the region”.
In the case of Marcelo Elbaum, a portfolio more aggressive in it was Trump should contain a 20% in actions (15% in banks and 5% in YPF), a 15% of Lebac, a 10% in long adjustable bond by CER, a 5% of titles that fit by Badlar, a 20% of provincial and corporate bonds in dollars with maturities between 2021 y 2028, a 25% sovereign bonds in dollars with later maturities to 2028, and a 5% coverage of the American Government rate.
“If the measures that promises to Trump encourage global growth and that joins the local rally, the shares could go favored. In addition, considering that anticipate a devaluation of the weight between 18% y 20% for this year, It is attractive to invest in fixed income securities (sovereigns, sub-sovereign and corporate) dollar with yields above 7%, always with coverage of international rates”, said Elbaum.